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When History repeats itself

When History repeats itself...

If the history comes back to you again, there is no use of closing the doors and the windows. It gets in anyhow and you have two choices: to breathe this fresh air irrespective of its qualities; or to keep your breath and die. Nobody has the luxury of preventing historic recurrences, as “no one can fight the moon light”.

The strangest side of the ‘historic recurrence’ phenomenon is that you never know exactly when this ‘circling creature’, which left you once in the past, is going to honour you again. When you notice the first signs of its tremendous return, it is already too late: processes are unstoppable and irrevocable. However you, even if silently, plead guilty to the return of His Excellency History...

Because nothing takes place causelessly. And ‘historic recurrence’ phenomena has also its causes. History just revenges! Human beings receive some kind of gifts in the end of each symbolic historic circles. For example, the United Nations and International Law were two most important awards to the humankind delivered immediately after the Second World War taking lives of millions. Their ultimate purpose was expected to be the maintenance of international peace and security.

We the people of the World started hating both new ‘divine creatures’ only several years after their birth. We jumped at occupying and annexing new territories here and there, we enjoyed applying ‘double standards’, we made the ‘International law’ the ‘Law of Jungle’. This led us to inter-systems confrontations and long-lasting ‘Cold War’. So we divided one world into two.

The two-polar international system collapsed in 1991 and it brought the end of the above-mentioned ‘Cold War’ phenomena. Unfortunately, shortly after we found ourselves, may be in the Third World War – a war against International Terrorism. The disasters within this period was not limited to International Terrorism only and it also brought new waves of Transnational Organized Crime. Starting from December, 2010, another paradoxical phenomena joined the above-mentioned two: unrests coming with the ‘Arab Spring’.

Even several years before 2010, the first signs of new global confrontations were being observed in post-Soviet territories when the wave of coloured revolutions swept the governments off in several countries including Ukraine (2004 Orange Revolution), Georgia (2003 Rose Revolution), and Kirgizstan (2005 Tulip Revolution). According to open media resources, the colour revolution wave should spread to a set of other countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia etc.). However the appropriate governments were successful in maintaining the control over the processes and the ‘colour wave’ could not progress further in the post-Soviet area.

A couple of words about ‘Arab Spring’ again...Uprisings in several Arabic countries got several names so far. Uprisings, unrests, revolutions are amongst them. In our humble opinion, any of those words can be attributed to the bloody events in some Arabic countries except one: all happenings do not fit to the concept of revolution neither legally nor politically. Because no influential leaders, no new and innovative ideologies supported by the majority of the nation, no sound revolutionary apparatus/mechanisms etc. were present in the pre-revolution period to design, plan, prepare and implement all revolutionary measures in all three subsequent stages, namely, before the revolution, in the course of revolution and after the revolution. Also, ruling classes in target countries were not in the culmination of inter-clans clashes and there were no clearly observed crisis in the governmental, political, economic, social, religious systems. What about the ‘ruled classes’, average statistic citizens were not dying of hunger and socio-economic problems were not serious enough to give birth to revolutions. Subsequently, many of elements existing in the case of traditional revolutions were absent in ‘Arab Spring’ cases. Besides that, unrests in Arabic countries changed almost nothing except governments and brought nothing new for the people. For example, if French revolutions brought human rights and freedoms, secularism etc., and if Russian Revolution brought absolutely new ruling system, Arab unrests brought neither democracy nor any other revolutionary systems. Therefore they were not revolutions and they can never be recognized as revolutions.

Nevertheless, there were some preconditions in all four countries and processes were on way towards the revolution. Existing governments in target countries lost the ‘logic of ruling’ many years ago. The principal rulers were ‘out of real business’ and devoted themselves to various kinds of entertainment events together with their family members, close relatives, friends and their major function was just to play ‘the role of father of nation’. Additionally, almost all of those rulers fostered cults of personality. They made themselves worshipped heroes by open public propaganda and masses were convinced to believe in the flawlessness of their leaders. The ‘infinite kings’ of the desert just forgot about the feeling of responsibility. In fact they were supposed to be responsible before their own nations, they were responsible before neighbours, and they were responsible before the whole international community.

So on the day when the last drop of God’s patience took a last dive, the trusted heroes of the ‘fathers’ could do nothing rather than making things to become worse. They lied to the kings till the last moment. Instead of negotiating with the people who protested peacefully, they urged the old kings to allow them to suppress demonstrators more aggressively. Despite the fact that three of several major dynamics for any revolution (influential leaders, new and innovative ideologies supported by the majority of the nation, and sound revolutionary apparatus/mechanisms) were not strong enough, and some of other important preconditions did not manifest (e.g. members of the ruling cabinet could find common language with one another so far, economic, social, religious political systems were functioning somehow), one of those preconditions was enough to overthrow the governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and make the government internationally recognized criminal in Syria. In other words, everything came to the point that ‘the ruled class did not want to be ruled on the basis of previous rules anymore’.

We strongly deny all those claims which contend to the decisive role (there were foreign interventions, of course but those can’t be considered as the key factors) of ‘foreign factor’ in non-peaceful power changes in aforementioned four countries. Of course, Bin Ali, Mubarak, Kaddafi and Asad foreign policies were not realistic enough to maintain the status quo in their countries and all four authorities had problems with the states members of opposite polar. However the crucial blow for all of them came from their own people. Unlimited illegal arrests, kidnappings, torturing, defamation, slandering, sexual abuses, the absence of fair trials, granting impunity to criminals from ruling class circles etc. were among major reasons which strongly disappointed average citizens and masses started doubting at their fathers’ ability to rule fairly as before. Thus, kings waiting for three apples to fall from the heaven in the end of subsequent tale in their palaces had to embrace bombs thrown to them by revengers.

Another important event of our days was ‘Turkish Summer’ (Occupy the Gezi Park Movement) which started in Istanbul, Turkey on 28 May 2013. Charismatic, domestically powerful and decisive Turkish Government faced with serious troubles in dealing with this almost first extra-ordinary situation and first massive disobedience. Methods used by the police to control protestors reportedly damaged Turkey’s reputation as a democratic power. Briefly speaking, ‘Gezi Movement’ was a very serious test for AKP (Justice and Development Party).

Ironically, ‘Turkish Summer’ was followed by ‘Turkish Winter’ when the Financial Crimes and Battle against Criminal Incomes department of the Istanbul Security Directory detained 47 people, including officials and very close relatives of several Turkish Ministers on 17 December 2013. Everyone in official circles started talking about the ‘parallel state’ (undercover state structures) leaded by Fetullah Gulen, head of religious ‘Hizmet’ (service) Movement who is residing in Pennsylvania, USA for many years until now. Undoubtedly, this was another shock for AKP. Many even forecasted that AKP would lose his positions in local self-governing structures in 2014 municipal elections to be held on 31 March 2014. As we know, AKP has already won above 40 percent of overall votes in these elections.

This is an extremely delicate victory (further active contradictions between rival parties seem unescapable) as the dynamics of Turkish internal politics is quite unpredictable. In our humble opinion, the Turkish Government has to be very attentive with regards to a number of issues on human rights and freedoms domain. Any extreme forms of use of force against the opposition under current circumstances will not be in favour of the ruling party. Also, Turkey is pregnant to two other elections which are more important and more crucial. These are Presidential elections (10 August 2014), and Parliamentary elections (13 June 2014).

Many observers are surprised why AKP still leads the political system of Turkey after so many serious political problems the party has recently faced with. The fact that two other strong parties (People’s Republican Party and Nationalist Movement Party) are not supported everywhere in Turkey and their victory in elections can be pre-evaluated as a phenomena giving birth to very risky political outcomes. Despite its serious problems, AKP is currently the only centralist force in Turkey which can keep all country together. This would therefore be desirable that opposition also demonstrates a maximum tolerant position and refrains from any kind of active confrontations at the time being.

In other words, Turkish political forces are acting now within a kind of ‘interdependent political coalition’. This can be considered as a kind of ‘patriotic coalition’ and its future depends on the change of power centres in Turkey. We can call it ‘invisible coalition’ and it may exist for indefinite period of time or until the time of emergence of a new, strong, uniting power in the country.

What about ‘Slavic Spring’ in Ukraine, this case is to be considered as an extraordinary one (you can read our previous report on this specific issue titled ‘Radical changes in Russian Foreign Policies: was Ukraine the last drop of patience’). Recent events in Ukraine have changed the whole international picture and the world’s political map. Two-polar system came back and new cold war has already started, unfortunately. The humankind is to witness cold war confrontations at least for a couple of years from now on. In fact, internationally recognized border changes will probably not limited to only Ukraine.

To conclude, we’d like to point out that now the socio-economic and political world reminds some epochs in the history followed by tragedies. We don’t want to get into details of the previous presumption. But one has to say that now the situation in the world partly looks like 1917-1923s, partly reminds 1930s, and partly 1960s. In other words, the humankind seems to be face to face with the serious risk of committing the combination of its previous errors. Recurrence of those ‘combinative mistakes’ or Recurrence of History...

Not even imaginable! Why things have got worsened? What has gone wrong? What happened to us? Our answers to these question are roughly exhibited in the third and fourth paragraphs of this blog. Yes, apparently we betrayed the Spirit of Our Struggle.

Hopefully, those mistakes will never occur again. However historical recurrences are not excluded which can result in subsequent changes on the political map of the world. May be due to the objective reason that it is easier to solve urgent global problems by negotiating them among the limited number of parties. This is an objective reality.

And hopefully all objective realities will not make us obliged to repeat our deadly mistakes any more. For this ultimate purpose we have to benefit from ‘best practices’ in negotiating and easing all kind confrontations. In our humble opinion, EU ‘best practices’ are bright examples to be taken into consideration. We may also try to revive International Law and United Nations. Because these are two important tools which can help us to protect ourselves from ourselves.

Ramin Lev

Social Media Columnist

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